The labour market Report for the month of September
The title is the Change in Employment:
- expected 15.0 K, prior 54.2 K
- expected to be 5.6% 5.6%
Full-Time Employment Change:
- before there was +40.1 K
Part Time Employment Change:
- before there was +14.1 K
- expected 65.2%, prior was 65.3%
What are the «seasonally adjusted», which is what is reported immediately and captures the attention of the market. The «trend» of the data is the Australian Bureau of Statistics tells us to look at, but nobody cares what they say! I pop the ‘trend’ of data immediately following the his figures anyway.
A good report should be supportive for the Australian dollar, but the attention will turn to China (and Congress) pretty soon after).
- We expect employment to have dropped 5k in September. This fall follows a strong increase in August of 54k, which itself built on a 29k rise in July.
- While business surveys suggest the labour market remains strong, a number of statistics of a refund seems in order. In addition, the September data have tended to disappoint, with an average decline of about 12k over the past four years.
- We expect that the rate of unemployment remains unchanged at 5.6%.
- The Australian labour market has improved significantly during the year 2017.
- There were six strong monthly employment reports in a row.
- The improvement is evident in a range of labour market indicators, and it has been widespread in all states.
- We expect to see another decent report in September, which is consistent with the forward-looking indicators.
- Our forecast is for an elevator in the jobs of 20k over the course of September, which would take the unemployment rate to 5.5% on a slight drop in the participation rate.
- Total employment has increased by 54.2 k in August, compared to the market for the +20k. Full-time employment rebounded 54.2 k following a -19.9 k correction Jul. In the year a full-time job won 251.2 k/3.0% per year. Part-time employment increased 14.1 k following a 49.1 k bounce in Jul. In the year to August, part-time employment lifted of 74.5 k/2.0%per year.
- According to the state, the new south wales, Victoria and Queensland have been driving the force by the total employment gains 12.9 k, 18.6 k and 16.7 k, respectively.
- The leading indicator, including our favorite Jobs of all the Indexes point to a strong demand for labour. We are also looking for annual growth in employment exceeded the Index until the end of 2017 and until the beginning of 2018, as it bounces from an undershoot at the end of 2016, beginning 2017. Our forecast 25k increase in employment will raise the average annual rate of 3.1% per year, from 2.7% per year.
- In spite of the strong employment increase, the Aug printed version of a flat unemployment rate of 5.6% (5.60% at two decimals) in 0.2 pt gain on the rate of participation in the conduct of a strong increase of the workforce.
- In August, the increase of the participation of a lift to both male and female participation, but the gains from females were slightly more and females do not seem to be on a more solid upward trend. Men, on the other hand, look more like they have found a degree of stability in the participation. By the state, the strongest gains in female participation were in Queensland, but they are also in the improvement of new south wales, while Vic continues to maintain a very high level of participation of women.
- In September, we are looking for a flat in a participation rate of 65.3%, which will generate a 30.5 k gain of the work force who, with the borough, will leave the unemployment rate to 5.6%.
- The outsized August +54k defied all the seasonal analysis (as has employment all year …).
- We are looking for a 5k to correction, that only bumps the superb performance of the labour market this year, well that might raise the unemployment rate to 5.7%. Market just as confused, with a breathtaking beach -10k +32k.
- We are looking for the strength to continue as leading indicators, including job offers, job ads and the NAB business survey all point to another month of strong jobs growth, but our +15k forecast takes into account the risk of a statistical correction. This, however, still leaves the underlying trend strong.
- After the distribution, with a temporary period of weakness earlier in the year, the job market looks very strong, with an unemployment rate resuming its steady decline from mid-2015 peaks of 6.3%. The last month has seen another good result with a +54.2 k title job growth for the month, and the force in
the detail, with a rate of unemployment of the management to maintain up to 5.6%, despite the participation rate up to 65.3%, the highest level since 2012.
- As we have noted previously, the RBA has also been sounding more positive on the labour market in recent comments. We are looking for the unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in September.