Australian retail Sales data for today — previews (and should AUD impact)

Australian retail sales data for the month of September

  • expected +0.4% m/m, prior -0.6%

Also, due to the time of the Q3, retail sales excluding inflation

  • expected 0.0%, prior +1.5% q/q

Previews via …ANZ

  • We expect monthly retail sales have rebounded a bit from recent weakness, rising by 0.5% m/m in September.
  • While we continue to see the retail trade sector in the face of difficult conditions, three consecutive negative monthly bed has never been seen before.
  • Q3 CPI data suggest that retail inflation remains very low, and in fact we think the retail price has decreased during the quarter. Therefore, our selection is for the retail sales volumes increased 0.2% q/q, down from 1.5% q/q rise in Q2, but a little stronger than T1.


think the quarterly retail trade data will be soft given that the sales
fell in July and August and were likely to have been mild in September.

And, in addition to the ABC ….

  • AUD is facing headwinds today, because we expect a disappointing Australian retail sales report
  • We expect a mild increase of 0.3% in September, retail sales (consensus: 0.4%).
  • There seems to have been a certain update in Q3. In real terms, we believe that the retail trade will be posting a small 0.1% in the 3rd quarter (consensus: 0%).


  • NAB is clean
    Without cash Index predicts the last month is read, and this month it is
    the forecast of 0.6% m/m climb. We have facilitated this to a 0.5% increase in
    in our forecasts, given the possibility for the last quarter of the number of
    be revised upward
  • As for the volumes quarterly as the flow
    in the GDP, the last quarter was, overall a flat quarter for
    retailers and combined with the retail sales linked to the CPI, prices, estimates
    point a small rise of 0.1% in volumes for the quarter.

The bold above is mine….

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