BOE day of judgment is now here, but what can we really expect?




A lot of hype and bluster, but we are going to find the fact at 12: 00 GMT 2 Nov Will-they/won’t they rate increases today ? If yes, is it a one-off or start
a series of hikes ? How much of either is already taken into account? These
and other questions will be answered in the wake of today’s
announcement at 12: 00 GMT. I stick to my opinion, no hiking is still one
possibility, but if we want to obtain a threshold of 0.25% of the increase, as is widely expected, the
then, it is a one-off to reverse the reflex cut off after «brexit» and widely
taken into account, as GBP gains will be limited after a quick jump higher.
Not only a correction to this cup, but also a need to create a leeway for a cup again if/when the next crisis ( brexit or other) comes to pass. Save face in the wake of recent comments also a factor, but this is never apparently bothered Carney before in a CBS career, in which he never once pushed up the button. On this previous note and the BOE, and the rhetoric, I find the notion of a 0.5% hike, but the one which is preferred by some prominent economists, and not a real possibility. Will Carney finally pushing the hike button?
Recent data has not justified a rate increase and the BOE have already said that they see inflation peaking around now and c. 3% then why hike now? The answer to all this might well throw in the last inflation report of the BOE, which is also due at 12: 00 GMT . An upward revision to previous forecasts/view could well be a good reason/excuse for them to pull the trigger today. Little point waiting until December or January.
I said last week that we need to see where we are, this morning, before you can do any prediction/crystal ball assumptions, and therefore at 1.3250 from a 1.3070-1.3322 range since I can foresee a peak around 1.3400 and later he closes-50 and around the base of 1.3050-1.3100.
No more big moves, I hear you cry? Well, I don’t see what happens to shake it up, a lot further, even with the algos in full fettle. Therefore they are not hiking today, but a signal soon again, and then we will drive to the bottom, in the rush, but the more I read the traders/robots have taken into account a hike and see limited gains, the more I feel that the market is already less than a week or two ago, and so there will be demand in the recess to limit the excessive losses
Conversely, the market seems ready to sell the rally, so that should limit the gains, even if they do not signal it is the beginning of a gradual tightening as they have alluded to earlier. Bluff and counter bluff where the market is currently and how much, and what is actually taken into account.
Brexit remains unknown, and the united KINGDOM, the government is now in an even weaker position with May and her ministers who are trying to operate a tightening/fragile majority in parliament and to pressure more threatening to the review. Fallon resignation of the Secretary of Defense could be just the tip of the iceberg.
GBPUSD the pair currently 1.3244 and to the rear of the foot slightly with EURGBP up to test 0.8800 again. The order of the advice here and here. Watch the presser live here from 12: 30 GMT
To conjecture that prevails today once more. Ours is not to reason why, ours is just to sell and buy, or, in effect, to buy and sell, if that is your preference/the result. Not burn excess energy today. Take a chill pill, stop second guessing and just get ready with your choice of input/output level that the algo-led moves unfold.
You know that a part, at least, is within your control, and don’t forget,



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