Fed Harker: the GDP continues just as we expected




Speaking at FintechHe adds:

  • The GDP is running slightly above the trend
  • The labour markets of feel really tight
  • Best estimate, the GDP decrease of 100 bp of the quarter
  • The GDP will bounce back from the hurricanes in 4Q
  • We begin to see some wage pressures
  • The low growth of wages, may be due to changes in who is employed,
  • We are running below our 2% inflation target
  • Inflation is one area that gives me pause
  • To the average American, low inflation is not a problem, but there are risks for monetary policy.
  • Our work showing that we are to overestimate the inflation is convincing
  • Pause on the Fed funds rate path is appropriate
  • Today PCS of printing is low
  • Penciled up in December and 3 tightenings in 2018
  • B/S relax is to take several years
  • The Fed may end up with B/S of $2.5 T. will right size when you see it.
  • My estimates of the rate of assumed inflation will return

Fed Harker is the President of the Philadelphia Fed. He is a member with the right to vote in 2017 (not 2018). His pencil was probably an eraser, but at this point, a Dec of the hike is expected.
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