Reached below the trend line and 100 hour MA.USDJPY is flirting with a bunch of technique, because it trades at session lows.
Looking at the hourly chart above,
- the pair has a trend line coming from September 8, weak. The price traded below and above and below, yesterday and today.
- The price moved then tested fell below 100 hour MA (blue line at the 112.368)
- The price tested the 200 hour MA at 112.17 (low reached 112.206). The 50% of the move up from the September 20, the low is also the level. The last two tests the 200 hour MA (see green circles) has stalled at the 200-hour MA. Today is the 3rd test.
The sellers are trying to take control technically on the first two jumps, but it is to find the 200 hours of MY a tough nut to crack.
To make things even more difficult, even on a break, it is the daily 200 MA at 111.991 is also down to the horizon.
So the downside of the sled is a difficult question.
One thing that might help the sellers if a ceiling can be held, is the beach is only 52 pips today. The 22-day average is 102 points. So the range is the light. There is room to move.
Sellers like to see 100 hours of MA to hold a rally in the now. That would give more confidence to the move lower today.
Looking at the returns, the changes are less than 1 bp, but closer to the hollow in the quiet of the negotiation. A move lower, help the sellers cause.
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