I have a rule of thumb when it comes to trading around nuclear war







With all the talk about North Korea

One of two things is going to happen:

  • Nuclear war
  • This will all blow over
  • If there’s nuclear war, or even conventional war, the Korean peninsula will be in very rough shape. Possibly Japan and places beyond too. It would be an unbelievable tragedy and a major destabilizing force in markets.

    That said, nuclear war isn’t in the cards. It’s just stupid talk from stupid politicians. Donald Trump is narcissist but he’s not going to vaporize millions of people to feel powerful. And Kim Jong-Un isn’t suicidal, so he’s not going to launch an attack.

    So it will all blow over, like it always does, and this bid in the Swiss franc, yen, gold and other safe havens will fade.

    So the rule of thumb is to always bet against nuclear war. When it doesn’t happen, you make a bit of money. If it does happen, we’re all done for anyway.




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