This via eFX today, the Bank of Japan meeting and the yen
Here is a brief of expectations for today’s boj September policy
declaration of the compilation of research reports of 10 major
Overall, the consensus expects the BoJ to keep policy unchanged.
On the JPY front, the consensus seems to see the meeting as a non-event with a limited impact on the JPY.
TD Search: It
is widely seen to leave the policy unchanged, but the immediate goal is
if the bank may consider abandoning the reference to the JGB purchase
level of JPY80tn. In fact, it is the first anniversary of the YCC and
many investors are ready on the next steps. In part, this reflects the
potential that the JPY could be the next domino to fall in the
sequence convergence. In particular, the JPY is always one of the more
under-valued currencies in the G10 and the BoJ is maintaining the extreme
the levels of policy accommodation. It is also interesting to note that the growth is
currently running around four times the 10yma of 0.6%.
Barclays Research: The
BoJ (Thursday) is widely expected to keep policy unchanged
unanimously. Since, it will not be publishing the Report on the Perspectives of the time, the
MPM will probably have a limited market effect, but only from the
replacement of two resigned hawkish members (Kiuchi and Sato) with
neutral Suzuki and dovish Kataoka on the monetary policy, the discussions will be
Crédit Agricole CIB Research: Our
the economists expect the BoJ to make no changes to its policy settings
the next week, and to keep his IOER and the 10Y bond yield of japanese government guidance to -0.10%
and 0%, respectively. They also expect the BoJ to keep its official target
of JPY80trn the expansion of the monetary base. Especially, next week
the meeting will be the first for newly-appointed members, Goshi Kataoka and
Hitoshi Suzuki, the two are considered as doves. They replaced Sato and Kiuchi,
who were both hawks and opponents of large-scale purchases of
Jgbs. Therefore, it should not be dissenting from the next week decision.
We do not believe that the dovish composition of the BoJ’s Board of directors will be
important for the markets until in the future, when the Board of directors begins
given the tightening of the policy; next, this make-up could lead to the Card
being at the origin of the curve.
Morgan Stanley Research:We
are generally bearish on the yen, which is expected to lag behind the rest of the G10
save for the CHF. ..We anticipate that the bank of japan to maintain its performance curve control
framework, which should lead to a decrease in real rates and in turn
foreign investment flows and JPY weakness.
Deutsche Bank Research:Us
do not expect any big policy changes this week to the MPM, but our
economists have suggested that the removal of the ¥80trn figure or a
switch to a ¥60-80trn range would be realistic and desirable.
BofAML Research: We
expect the central bank to leave policy on hold, keeping its objectives
for prices and risk asset purchases unchanged. The fundamentals are not
justify a BoJ move in both directions. Although the economic recovery has
been solid, inflation remains low and largely fuelled by the energy
the price. No change of policy expected, market participants will likely be
focus on the voting behavior of two new members of the board of directors, Suzuki, and
Kataoka. We expect to vote in favour of the status quo, resulting in
the first unanimous (9-0) decision of policy in nearly three years.
the policy now is effectively in a holding pattern, waiting for the
of the election. Reports continue to suggest that it is likely to do so in the
the next few days. An early election and a return to LDP government
increase in the probability of Kudoda remaining the Governor of the BoJ for another
five years and as such would be JPY-negative.
wait for it to keep its «QQE with the yield curve of control» the policy is unchanged.
It is widely expected that the BoJ stands pat this time and the
the ad should not have a material impact on the share price.
BTMU Research: A look
expectations of inflation in Japan, which have consistently declined this
the year is a clear indication of the scepticism of the markets now hold more of the
the ability of the monetary policy of the BoJ to raise the inflation…This week, the
September meeting, the BoJ is unlikely to shake up USD/JPY.
NAB Search: Today
is the BoJ, the recent results, which are often rather pedestrian for the
market. But remember, the BoJ is hoping that the Yen (USD) for the help
their efforts to inject prices to the recovery of the economy
«The yield Curve» Control is intended to limit yields to near zero. It
remains to be seen if the Fed policy will be a hindrance or a help, WE
inflation readings is doubly important. Governor Kuroda may be
when asked about the Fed and the BoJ implications of his press conference. And
there are two new members of the MPC. Dissent?: possible, but unlikely.