September forex scorecard: GBP/JPY, the winner, the seasonal trends to be missed




How to do currency score in September

Buying GBP/JPY at the beginning of the month is a big advantage, as the pair rose to 150.32 of 140.90 — nearly 10 big figures.

The great driver to say that the trade was a warmonger of the inclination of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, the Governor.

To come a little later, we’ll take a look at the seasonal patterns for the month of October, but first, here is the dashboard for the month of September. At the beginning of the month, I have noticed that it was slim pickings for seasonal jobs in September, in large part because it is a news-heavy month.

It has been difficult to find real winners, but I sorted the cards to try to find a bias and here is what I found (and how he did it).

1) Natural gas long. I noted an upward bias in natural gas in September, but it has been distorted by a month of September in 2009. It has gained as much as 4.1%, but is down 1.2% today.

2) Usually a weak month for the Nikkei. It was completely false, as all the world’s stocks rallied, including a big 3.6% rise in the Nikkei 225.

3) the Oil shorts. Crude is in the middle of a long stretch of the season of the weakness which continues until the end of the year. But the hurricanes and the newsflow trumped the seasonal pattern in September with an 8.8% rally.

4) I have noticed a slight negative bias for the Dollar index, but the dollar was generally higher in the month, behind NZD, and GBP. Once again, a hawkish tone from the Fed and the passage of the debt ceiling have been too much to overcome. All well said, I think the dollar should be higher than where it is trading and maybe Seven seasonal employees have been restraining gains.

5) I wrote that It was a good month for the euro, and it began this way, with a rally to a cycle high on Sept 8, but the tide turned later, after several consecutive months of gains-it slipped to 1.1822. It is only a slight drop on the month, but it’s a decline all the same.

All in all, it was a miserable month for the seasonal employees, but, again, September is a month where the seasonal employees are much help.

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