The bank of Canada to focus later. The usd / cad remains above the 100-day MA




Broke above yesterday. First close above since the month of June 9thThe of the Bank of Canada will announce their latest intentions for the rate to 10 pm ET/ 1400 GMTThe expectations are for no change in rates. The probability of an increase stand to 17.8% for tomorrow. The chance of a hike rises to 44% for the December 6th meeting.
The Bank of Canada has had two hiking in 2017. They came on back-to-back meetings in July and again in their last meeting in September, where it was a close call for a 2nd hike. Two days after the hiking of the pair in the bottom to 1.20612. The pair has moved steadily higher since then and currently trades at 1.2684.

Technically, the rally higher took the price above the 100 day MA at 1.26476 level (for the moment). That MY is always a barometer for both bullish and bearish. The high price has moved up to 1.26919 (yesterday, it reached the summit). It closed at 1.2674 and trades at 1.2683 currently.
Looking at the hourly chart, the price move higher yesterday, broke above a big trend line, but has moved back below that line by the close. We are currently in the process of retest the former trend line to the 1.2685 level. Hold and we could/should see some sales. That could take the price towards the 100 days. However, I expect that the 100-day MA would be dropping out of a fall.
SUMMARY:
With the price here, the technical bias is more optimistic. It will be necessary to return below the 100-day MA at 1.26476 to get the buyers to rethink (and sell) their long (j’.e of profit). A break back below is also likely to attract more new vendors (new shorts).
If this does not happen and the price starts to push higher, the buyers are more in control.
The potential targets include the 38.2% of the move down from the May to 1.27225. Above that will be swing low from August 2016 to 1.2763, and the high from August 2017, who came close to that level 1.2777 (see daily chart below).



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