This time tomorrow we will have the 1 OCR decision from a new governor of the RBNZ

Her farewell to Graeme Wheeler and hello to «act» governor Grant Spencer
I’ve posted a few previews of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision due on Thursday morning (NZ time)

  • RBNZ meet this week, coming up on Thursday (NZ) — overview … Kiwibank overview
  • NZD traders — heads for the RBNZ this week (excerpt) … BNZ overview

Now, by ANZ:

  • We expect that the RBNZ once again to leave the OCR to 1.75%
  • And to reinforce an ultra-neutral position

While the global growth is looking strong, the weight of the evolution of the domestic situation bodes well for a more cautious approach; the growth is just the trend. The development of the economy, the election of close by, and the RBNZ changes of leadership means this decision is going to be something of a «non-event». Our bias is still that the ROCK will be lifted at the end of next year. The evolution of fiscal policy and a reduction of NZD (when the liquidity cycle turns) are the key factors to give nudges to the ROC. However, it is not an opinion well grounded, with the risks tilted towards an even more the policy of the nap. There is simply not enough excess demand, to increase the rate of inflation.

  • The announcement, due to the 27 September at 2000GMT (Thursday local NZ time)
  • OCR is currently 1.75% and there is no change planned (almost unanimous no change pending)

(OCR, Official Cash Rate)

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