So, what should you look for in the coming weeks of trading of the pair.The eur / usd pair traded in a relatively narrow trading range this week of 130 pips. The peak 1.1859. The bottom came at 1.1729. The top of the range this year has been about 290 pips. The lower end of the range is about 90 pips. The middle of the ranges comes in about 190 pips.
Looking at the weekly chart, the high of the week below the 1.1876-79. The 1.1876 level of the June 2010 low. I stilll believe that it is a key «memory».
The 1.1879 level was the high of last week.
This area represents a barometer of bullish and bearish at the top. Get over and it is more optimistic. Stay below and it may not be entirely down, but there is less on the rise (which could lead to more downside). The 1.1859 high this week, the impasse of 20 pips short of the resistance zone.
On the other side of the coin, this week, the low 1.1729 came up short of the week 200 MA to 1.17893 (about 40 pips). 200 MY week is another key barometer for both bullish and bearish and helps to keep the bias to a little more optimism in the whole. Until the price comes back below the 200 MA week, you can argue the buyers are more in control.
So that the high-low range for the week remained below a key bull/bear line above 1.1876-79, and above a key uptrend, downtrend line below to 1.1689. That lie between the levels of 190 pips. Ironically, it is the average for the year. This week, 130 pips range is completed between the two. It was a non-trends of the week.
Non-western, and to me, said, «the market» is unsure of what he wants to do. It is ok. At a certain point, it (that is to say , «the market») decide to go higher or lower. The ECB meets next week. Be on the lookout for a break and run. I will be using these levels on the scale, to help define the break hope that the next big project.
Drilling down into the 4-hour chart below, interim, key levels can be cut like a «market» decides more bullish or more bearish.
For example, the pair is currently trading at 1.1772. It is close to 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart to 1.17814 (blue line in the chart above).
The next week, that MY line will help to define the bias for the shortest duration. Stay below, and then below the 1.1716-20 area, which is home to a few swing levels from a few weeks ago, and the test of the week 200 MA can be expected. Those are the downward steps to the traders of the next week.
If the price moves back above the 100 bar MA at 1.17814, for a look that’s more of a potential upside in the pair.
The above objectives would be:
- The 1.1822-37. This region is home to swing the level back in time.
- Above that is the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart to 1.1854 (green line) will be in the eyes. The last 5 tests of that MY line has found sellers. KEY, LEVEL KEY.
Get above the 200 bar MA line and the next step is to break the 1.1876-80 zone. Then, it is out of the race.
These are the trend upward steps.
130 pip range this week indicates that, little volatility and «the market» does not know
what he wants to do (go up or down).
As a result, we as traders need to draw the plan of top and bottom. The 4-hour chart has set some key level above and below which are used to define steps on the way to the bottom and steps on the path of increase.
Follow these steps on the breaks. Look for momentum to begin to develop to a certain point (remember, the market is really not sure)
Just listen to the market, following the technical clues. It will tell you whether the buyers or the sellers are taking more control and if the trend turns to trends, you run the chance of booking a few good points.