BoE : The MPC will he again drop the Book on Forex ?

The attention today concerning the GBP turns to the BoE meeting.

In August, the MPC held rates unchanged at 0.25%, but two members voted for a rate hike immediately.

The economic outlook since that date have remained limited, and the political uncertainty continues to increase.

The markets expect that the two members who have previously voted for a rate hike to maintain the same position today. But don’t expect new members making the same choice, in particular because of the continuous rise of inflation.

Particular attention will be paid to the new member of the MPC Ramsden, but he should vote in favour of the majority.

A surprise could come from Haldane, who in June had said that it will begin to tighten policy before the end of the year. But in view of recent data, it could choose to wait again.

Overall, the vote could therefore hold to 7-2 for the status quo.

It will also monitor the comments contained in the Minutes, which could provide information and clarification on the intentions of the BoE in a difficult period in terms of economy and politics.

These comments are likely to be the key element in the reaction of the Forex and GBP/USD.

A result hawkish tone could help the pair to go back towards recent peaks and the resistance of 1.3340, then a tone more dovish could help GBP/USD to correct towards 1.3150 and 1.3050 below.

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