Citi presents his fundamental analysis for the United States and the Euro Area.
United states : We expect GDP growth slightly above potential at 2.2% in 2017, and accelerated to 2.76% in 2018 thanks to the fiscal stimulus. The Fed has moved rates in June. The Fed has announced a reduction in the balance sheet in October, and we anticipate another rate increase in December.
Euro Zone : We maintain our forecast of GDP growth above the consensus at 2.2% in 2017, slowing down then to 2.0% in 2018 and 1.8% in 2019. The road of inflation towards the ECB’s target of «below but close to 2%» long. Our inflation forecast for 2018, 2019 and 2020 are 1.2%, 1.5% and 1.7%, respectively. You can expect a change of rhetoric from the ECB by the end of the year, so that the QE will likely be extended for a last time.