Last week was rich in events, but the cross is not able to reach important thresholds. 1.17-1.16 remains the channel of consolidation at the moment and the downside target are very likely 1.15 in the short term. The ECB has likely led to the downside to resume the hand. The report NFP better than expected was anticipated as the increase rate of the aprt of the ECB or the press-cutter of the FOMC. The appointment of governor Powell at the head of the FED has not changed the face of the world. Even if » ‘is a guy of low rates» (according to Trump), it is unlikely that the FOMC decides to challenge the rate increase in December. The Dollar will react is more likely when Powell will deliver his first words as President in 2018. Now here is the economic calendar to follow for the next week. It will be much more calm.
Monday at 8am the traders will take note of the commands in the industry-German the month of September. They are expected to decline 1.5 % m/m after a solid increase of 3.6 % in August. Follow the European PMI indexes. The consensus is at 10am in the PMI indices remain steady for the month of November (55.9 for the composite index of services and manufacturing).
Tuesday at 8am it will still be Germany that will attract the attention with the industrial production is expected to decline by 0.8 % m/m after rising a robust 2.6 % in August. At 11 am we will have the retail sales in the Euro Zone for September, but the market ignores often this statistic.
Tuesday at 16h we will have the report JOLT of new jobs in the month of September. We should observe 6.08 M 6.082 M in August.
Thursday, keep an eye on the entries weekly jobless claims at 1430. The consensus is for 230, 000 new registrations at unemployment.
Friday we have the consumer confidence index from the university of Michigan (16h. It is expected to rise to 101 in November, compared to 100.7 previously.
We remain of the opinion to play with the downside this week. Not that the calendar offers us opportunities net downward but rather because we believe that the current downtrend is likely to continue for some time, probably until the end of the year. A slope gently downward, especially if the FED suggests that rate hikes will continue in 2018. JP Morgan, for example, plans 4 rate hikes in 2018. Keeping this divergence in monetary in mind, it is difficult to believe that EUR/USD could rise above 1.20 in the short term. 1.15 seems to be a good balance point.