EUR/USD has shown to be hesitant in the past week, suggesting that the bulls have found a bone, and that it will be difficult to continue the upward trend without a catalyst clear enough. Risk aversion related to the geopolitical developments and, in particular, in the relationship with North Korea, has benefited the Dollar, as the minutes of the ECB’s more Dovish than anticipated. This week, the economic calendar we reserve many speeches of central bankers that meet at Jackson Hole for the annual symposium, where it is not uncommon to get signals of monetary policy are clear enough, and that can have a very strong impact on the markets.
On Tuesday, the first economic statistics important of the week will be released at 11 in Germany. The confidence index ZEW is expected to decline to 15 in August versus 17.5 in the previous month.
The next day you will have to follow the PMI indexes for manufacturing and services sector, French, German and eurozone at 9am, 9: 30am and 10am respectively. The consensus anticipates a relative stability of these opinion surveys. At 16h, we should keep an eye on the European consumer confidence that is always anticipated negative 1.9 vs. -1.7 in July.
Friday, eyes will turn to Germany with the growth of the second quarter (8h) expected increase of 2.1 % year-on-year. The Ifo index of business outlook will also impact the forex if we are far from the consensus, which anticipates 106.8 in August versus 107.3 in July.
On the U.S. side, it is Thursday that the serious things will begin. In fact, the gratin of central banks meet in Jackson Hole from Thursday. Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi will give a speech on Friday (21h for Draghi and 16h for Yellen). The last poll Reuters seems to suggest that Mario Draghi will not announce the striking but suspicion.. !
Before this, we will have the PMI indexes for manufacturing and services sector, on Wednesday at 15: 45. It is expected stable at 53.3 for the month of August. At 16h, we will have new home sales which should be stable at 610K. Sales of existing homes (the most influential) will be published the next day at 16h and we should see an increase to 5.57 Million in July.
This Thursday at 14: 30 there will be like each week weekly figures of U.S. unemployment. 238, 000 new jobless claims anticipated against 232 000 previously.
Friday, what are the central bankers who will make the show but let’s not forget the publication of durable goods orders at 14: 30 that could fall sharply after the sharp rise of 6.4 % in the month of June.
Fundamental analysis EUR/USD
A lot will depend on the speech of Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi. The two central bankers will they take the opportunity to tune their violins and deliver messages which could reduce EUR/USD ? Draghi will make an important announcement or a hint how to react to the markets ? It is clear that the market has expected in the past week to see what he will say at Jackson Hole. A test of 1.20 is not ruled out, just as a stronger decline of EUR/USD. If the blur persists, we could stir all remaining between 1.19 and 1.16. The rest of the economic calendar may not weigh heavily on the side of Yellen and Draghi.