Forecasts Macro EUR/USD for the week of June 12, 2017 : The statistical stars of the economic calendar will once again be focused on Friday




EUR/USD remains subdued. Those who support the trend upward have not said their last word. The downside need a little more grain to grind to go and settle in the range 1.15-17. We suspect that the latest comments from the president Trump have weighed on the Dollar before the closing even though the report NFP had been rather well received some time before. Trump said at a dinner with high-ranking military : «it is the calm before the storm «. Of course, we do not know who is referred by his remarks. But the decline of the Dollar suggests that the markets have decided to think that North Korea was in the viewfinder. The economic calendar for next week is not expected to put the economy at the centre of the game, but we’ll have some statistics very expected.

European Statistics

Monday, at 8am, we will have German industrial output. The consensus is for a rebound of 0.7 % for the month of August after a decline of 1.1 % in July. Keep an eye on the index Sentix gauging the confidence of european investors. It is expected to increase slightly to 28.5 against 28.2 in September.

Tuesday it will be the turn of France and Italy to communicate their figures on industrial production at 8: 45 and 10 a.m., respectively. A month on the other, it is expected that increases of 0.4 % and 0.2 %, respectively.

Wednesday at 9: 45am we will have the non-farm payroll employment in France for the third quarter. In Q2 we had chalked up an increase of 0.4%. This is a little…

Thursday is the industrial production of the Euro Area as a whole which is to be expected at 12 o’clock. The consensus is for a slowdown to 2.5 % yoy against 3.2 % in July. Has 8: 45 a.m. we will have the figure of inflation French, which weighs heavily in the decisions of the ECB. The HICP is expected to remain stable in displaying painfully to 1.1 % (y/y).

On Friday at 8am will be posted the inflation in germany. It should be stable at 1.8 % for the month of September.

Statistics US

Wednesday at 16h, we will have the first statistics US important with the report JOLTS that we can put in parallel with the recent report NFP quite disappointing in terms of job creation. For the month of August, the consensus is 6.138 million new jobs against 6.170 M previously.

Thursday, investors will not fail to take knowledge of the production price. Inflation US being shaky for the past several months, we could find clues as to the decisions of the FED later this year. The consensus expects a rise of 0.4 % a month on the other against 0.2 % in August.

We will have a new time on a Friday loaded with to 14: 30 CPI «core» retail sales » major «. The CPI core is expected to rise to 1.8 % in September against 1.7 % previously. The consumption of September should grow by 0.3 % vs. 0.2 % previously.

At 16h we will have the consumer confidence index from the university of Michigan, which is expected to remain high in September to 111.3 against 111.7 previously.

ANALYSIS EUR/USD

The trend of the background, if we take down enough, remains bullish. We have not broken levels significant enough to bet on a bearish reversal. The sharp rise at the end of last week suggests that there has been a profit-and that some of this may be seen to best account in the direction of the increase. Distrust, the upward pressure might make a return, especially if the tone continues to rise with North Korea.



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