EUR/USD has finally started to rebound the last week and the bears have not yet taken advantage of these higher prices to sell at the best price. The trend upward has again been preferred. The Euro’s rise has mainly been linked to the decline of the concerns vis-à-vis Catalonia. The movement has been supported by the stagnation of the inflation in the US last Friday. In sum, despite an economic calendar pretty extensive, we had a volatility is quite strong. One explains not necessarily the other.
Tuesday at 11am we will have the ZEW index of German. The consensus expects the index rose to 20 points in October, compared with 17 previously. An hour later it will be necessary to monitor inflation in the Euro area is expected stable at 1.5 % for September.
It is almost everything that the economic calendar european in store for us this week. We will also have prizes at the German production Friday at 8: 00. The consensus anticipates an acceleration in the price rise of 2.9 % yoy against 2.6 % previously.
Monday at 14: 30 this is the manufacturing index Empire State, which will set the tone. The consensus expects a decline of the index to 20.70 against 24.40 previously.
Tuesday, it will be necessary to take knowledge of the index of import prices at 14: 30. The market is quite sensitive when the numbers are lower than anticipated. The figures for September should again show up. Later at 15: 45 we will have the industrial production for the month of September. The consensus is for a monthly increase of 0.2 % vs. -0.9 % previously.
Wednesday at 14: 30 we will have building permits and housing starts for the month of September. Housing starts are expected to be stable after a decline of 0.8 % in August.
Thursday will be released at 14: 30, the manufacturing index of Philadelphia. The index is expected to remain fairly stable for October 22 against 23.8 previously.
On Friday the week will end with existing home sales, which are expected to again decrease. The consensus expects a decline of 0.9 % in September against -1.7 % in August.
It is likely that the direction of the cross EUR/USD remains unclear in the short term. We are of the opinion that the market expects to know what Mario Draghi has given us to decide the procedure to follow by the end of the year. The economic calendar is not very populated, the graphical configuration risk away. If a consolidation takes place, there will be room for a decline in EUR/USD.