Of the euro area
On Monday, a group of IFO indicators will be published. Taking into account the fact that the ZEW has been a steady growth in previously, it may be provided that the indices IFO will show growth for the month of August.
On Thursday, Gfk Consumer Confidence Index for the month of October and a group of indicators to measure the state of the economy of the euro area by the European Commission, will be released. The forecasts are too optimistic. The main event of the week is the publication of inflation data on Friday. The Experts expect a slight increase in overall inflation, but the base will be slowing down. The main reason for this is the growth of the euro in recent months.
On Sunday, the federal elections held in Germany. The growth of the political risk of contributing to the weakening of the euro with the probability of a correction to 1.16 high.
The major event of the last week, is the speech of the Prime Minister, Theresa may, who was entirely devoted to the relationship between Britain and the European Union. Can in detail its position on the transition period, its financial obligations, and the rights of citizens of the EU. However, she avoided details on the trade. On the one hand, Can be criticized the agreements between the european UNION. On the other, she has talked about the agreements with Norway and Canada, indicating that the nature of the relationship which should enable the parties to conclude something completely new.
Of course, the issue of trade at the present time is the key factor, because it directly affects the financial stability and will be the basis of investment activity. It is important to remember that the decision about «brexit» has been adopted in the united KINGDOM at the highest level, at a time when Europe has been subject to a huge and some-led influx of migrants. The united KINGDOM aimed to regulate the relations with the EU, in its favor, limiting the influx of migrants on its territory, but the opening of the door of the capital. It could begin from the exodus of all aspects of the problem, while retaining all of the trade preferences. The EU, of course, quickly understood this plan, and all the controversial issues in a single package, which is the main reason for the total lack of progress in the negotiations.
On Monday, the fourth round of negotiations begin. In addition, the conference of the trade unions of Great Britain will begin on Sunday. The policy is in the expectations of the book in the foreground, which is particularly noticeable in the context of a slow week in terms of publications macroeconomic. The two most important releases, Gfk consumer confidence and Lloyds business Barometer, will be released on Thursday and Friday. The two have a dynamic negative and indicate that the growth of the united KINGDOM will be low in the near future.
The tightening of the Bank of England positions and a number of previously published macro-economic data have contributed to a sharp increase in the book. This week, the bulls may try to achieve success. First of all, for the concerns of the cross of the EUR/GBP, you can expect a decrease 0.8690 and others, as well as cross against the swiss franc and the yen. At the same time, the GBP/USD rate will be more oriented towards the new united states, in the expectation of a return to growth in the value of the dollar. In this case, the transaction will be less than the maximum formed on the 20th September.
A number of positive factors contribute to the growth of speculative demand. Brent was fixed above $ 56 /bbl and does not intend to stop. By the end of March, Nigeria, which was previously free of restrictions, can join the OPEC countries + countries. The fulfilment of all agreements entered into by the parties to the agreement indicates that the OPEC countries + countries have understood all the benefits of the management of the production volume to control the rate of prices. Therefore, the prospects of the agreement are quite positive.