NFP : What to monitor in the report of the employment in US from September this afternoon ?




Today the markets ‘ attention is turned to the report of the employment US for the month of September, which will be released at 14: 30.

As a reminder, the report of the month of August had posted 156k job creation and wage growth at 0.1% m/m.

For the month of September, the consensus expects job creation to 90k, with an unemployment rate stable at 4.4%.

But beyond the NFP, with a rate of unemployment low and job creation, which remain strong, in satisfying the Fed about the current situation of the job market, the eyes will be much more oriented toward wage growth, where inflation is more globally remains the black point in the strategy of normalization of the Fed’s policy.

In addition, a disappointment for the NFP will be considered as a temporary and «normal» because of the hurricanes.

It will therefore be necessary to closely monitor the wages and salaries statistics this afternoon, where the consensus expects growth of 0.3% m/m after the disappointment of 0.1% last month.

A disappointment or a surprise upside in this wage statistics will probably be the determining element in the reaction of the markets and the Forex.

Finally, we will be able to keep an eye on the participation rate, which gives important information, but that the markets are looking a little on first reading. In July the rate was 62.9%, which is a pretty low level.



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