The fundamental analysis of the pair GBP/USD on 31 October 2017




GBP/USD has been quite corrective, and volatile recently residing inside of the price range of 1.3130 to 1.3270. GBP has been quite mixed, with economic reports as market sentiment was USD biased recently. Market participants anticipate that the BOE will increase interest rates from 0.25% to 0.50%, which should lead to additional gains on the GBP side. Recently, the Net Lending to Individuals report has been published in the united KINGDOM, with a decrease of the figure 5.5 (B) of the previous 5.7 B. The M4 money supply data has been published with a negative value of -0.2% from the previous positive value of 1.1%, which was expected to be 0.7%. The Mortgage Approvals has also been published as expected at 66k which, previously, was 67 years of age. In addition, the GfK Consumer Confidence report was released with more of a deficit, as expected, to -10 from the previous figure of -9. The latest UK economic reports in line with forecasts which helped the currency to gain strength ahead of interest rate decision which will be published on Thursday. On the USD side, the united States has presented a fairly positive economic reports and ahead of the rate decision, on Wednesday, some volatility is expected in this pair. Today, the US Employment Cost Index report will be released, which expected an increase of 0.7% compared to the previous value of 0.5%, the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI report is expected unchanged at 5.8%, while the Chicago PMI report is expected to decrease to 60.2 from the previous figure of 65.2. In addition, the CB Consumer Confidence report is expected to show an increase of 121.1 from the previous figure of 119.8. To summarize, this week is going to be very volatile and liquid for the pair as there will be only 18 hours of time difference between the us Interest Rate decision and the BOE Interest Rate that should make the market spike a lot. Currently, the price is in the range, but after the rate decisions are taken, we will have an indication of the more travel. GBP is expected to have an upper hand over the USD this month in the Uk is likely to increase interest rates while the rate increase from the Fed is expected to take place in December.

Now, let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing within a corrective range between 1.3130 and 1.3270. The pair is currently owned by the dynamic level of 20 EMA resistance, but because of the recent false break, and impulsive bullish pressure, it is expected that the price will break above the beach and create new vertices with the target to 1.3650 resistance area. As long as the price remains above 1.3100-30 support zone, the downward trend is expected to continue.



Добавить комментарий

60